This match marks the four-time world champions’ last UEFA Nations League (UNL) fixture of 2018/19, an encounter that Italy must win, and then pray for a Portuguese slip-up when their opponents face already-relegated Poland on November 20. The visitors, however, need just a draw in this one for UNL progression.
The Italians have failed to impress at home this calendar year, with three 1-1 draws on Italian turf following their failure to qualify for the World Cup. Furthermore, the fact that all of Italy’s home goals in that period have arrived after the break hints at a reluctance to put teams to the sword early on.
That said, Italy are unbeaten in 11 home games (W4, D7) with all four victories being accompanied by a clean sheet. Portugal, meanwhile, come into this match after two successive away wins, both of which saw them score three goals. Though lethal in the final third, the visitors have conceded at least once in four of their last five games away from home.
In the last four games within that category, Portugal have also conceded at least once in the 60-90 minute zone. However, they still have a potential psychological advantage, having beaten Italy in their last two H2H encounters (2015 and 2018) after previously going winless in ten (1980-2008).